OPEC+ set to agree another modest oil

 

LONDON/MOSCOW, Nov 2 (Reuters) - OPEC+ is set to agree on Sunday on another modest increase in oil output targets, three sources familiar with the talks said, as the producers' group moderates plans to regain market share due to rising fears of a supply glut.

OPEC+ has raised output targets by more than 2.7 million barrels per day - about 2.5% of global supply - since April, but slowed the pace in October and November from larger increases amid predictions of a looming oversupply.

New Western sanctions on OPEC+ member Russia are adding to challenges in the discussions, as Moscow may struggle to further raise output after the U.S. and Britain imposed new measures on top producers Rosneft and Lukoil.

Eight OPEC+ members - Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Kazakhstan and Algeria - have agreed in principle to increase December output targets by 137,000 barrels per day, the three sources said.

They declined to be named because they are not allowed to speak to the media. The agreement in principle means the Sunday meeting will likely quickly approve the deal when it meets virtually at 1600 GMT, the three sources said.

Oil prices fell to a five-month low of about $60 a barrel on October 20 on concerns that a glut was building, but have since recovered to about $65 a barrel on Russian sanctions and optimism over U.S. talks with trade partners.

Analysts including RBC, Rystad, Commerzbank and SEB have said this week they expect OPEC+ to raise targets by 137,000 bpd for December.

OPEC+ had been reducing output for several years until April and cuts had peaked in March, amounting to 5.85 million bpd in total.

The cuts were made up of three elements: voluntary cuts of 2.2 million bpd, 1.65 million bpd by eight members and a further 2 million bpd by the whole group.

The group has been unwinding voluntary cuts, while the last element of the cuts for the whole group is meant to stay in place until the end of 2026.

Additional reporting by Maha El Dahan; Writing by Dmitry Zhdannikov; Editing by Hugh Lawson and Jan Harvey

Russia uses missile in Ukraine that led Trump to quit nuclear treaty, Kyiv says

 

LONDON, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Russia has in recent months attacked Ukraine with a cruise missile whose secret development prompted Donald Trump to abandon a nuclear arms control pact with Moscow in his first term as U.S. president, Ukraine's foreign minister said.

Andrii Sybiha's comments are the first confirmation that Russia has used the ground-launched 9M729 missile in combat - in Ukraine or elsewhere.

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Russia has fired the missile at Ukraine 23 times since August, a second senior Ukrainian official told Reuters. Ukraine also recorded two launches of the 9M729 by Russia in 2022, the source said.

Russia's defence ministry did not immediately reply to a written request for comment.

ONE MISSILE FLEW 1,200 KM, SOURCE SAYS

The 9M729 led the United States to quit the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019. Washington said the missile was in breach of the treaty and could fly far beyond its limit of 500 km (310 miles) although Russia denied this.

The missile, which can carry a nuclear or conventional warhead, has a range of 2,500 km, according to the Missile Threat website produced at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

A military source said a 9M729 fired by Russia on October 5 flew over 1,200 km to its impact in Ukraine."Russia's use of the INF-banned 9M729 against Ukraine in the past months demonstrates (President Vladimir) Putin's disrespect to the United States and President Trump's diplomatic efforts to end Russia's war against Ukraine," Sybiha said in written remarks.

He told Reuters that Kyiv supported Trump's peace proposals and that Russia should face maximum pressure to push it to peace, saying that boosting Ukraine's long-range firepower would help persuade Moscow to end its war in Ukraine.

Ukraine has urged Washington to provide it with long-range Tomahawk missiles that were not banned under the INF because they were only sea-launched at the time. Russia says this would be a dangerous escalation.

'AN ISSUE FOR EUROPEAN SECURITY'

Use of the 9M729 expands Russia's arsenal of long-range weapons for striking Ukraine and fits a pattern of Moscow sending threatening signals towards Europe as Trump seeks a peace settlement, Western military analysts said.

"I think Putin is trying to ramp up pressure as part of the Ukraine negotiations," said William Alberque, a senior adjunct fellow at the Pacific Forum think tank, adding that the 9M729 was designed to hit targets in Europe.

Russia tested its nuclear-powered Burevestnik cruise missile last week, and on Wednesday said it had tested a nuclear-powered torpedo named Poseidon.

The White House did not respond to specific questions about Russia's use of the 9M729. Trump ordered the U.S. military on Thursday to resume testing nuclear weapons, citing "other countries' testing programs".

After the U.S. withdrew from the INF treaty, which banned ground-launched missiles with a range of 500-5,500 km, Russia declared a moratorium on deploying intermediate-range missiles. The West said Russia had already deployed some 9M729 missiles.

On August 4, shortly before using the missiles in Ukraine, Russia said it would no longer limit where it deploys INF-range missiles that can carry nuclear warheads.

"If it's shown that Russia's using INF-range missiles, which could easily be nuclear, in Ukraine, then that is an issue for European security, not just Ukraine," said John Foreman, a former British defence attache to Moscow and Kyiv.

MISSILE FRAGMENTS

Ukraine's foreign ministry did not provide details or dates of the 9M729 strikes.

The senior official said they began on August 21 - less than a week after a Trump-Putin summit in Alaska.

Reuters reviewed images of debris after a Russian attack in which a residential building was hit and four people were killed in the Ukrainian village of Lapaiivka on October 5 - over 600 km from Russian territory.

The images showed that two missile fragments, including a tube containing cabling, were marked 9M729.

Jeffrey Lewis, Distinguished Scholar of Global Security at Middlebury College, reviewed the images with analysts.

He said the tube, engine and engine panelling were consistent with what he expected the 9M729 to look like and that the markings made a match even more likely.

FIRING FROM FURTHER BACK

Russia has various missiles that can reach across Ukraine, including the sea-launched Kalibr and air-launched Kh-101, but Lewis said the 9M729 offers something slightly different.

"This gives them slightly different attack axes, which is difficult for air defences, and it increases the pool of missiles that are available to the Russians," Lewis said.

The INF prohibited ground-launched missiles because the launchers are mobile and relatively easy to conceal.

Douglas Barrie, Senior Fellow for Military Aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said Russia could use the 9M729 to conduct ground-launched strikes from safer locations deeper inside Russia.

Russia would also benefit from testing the system in a battlefield environment in Ukraine, though 23 uses would imply a military purpose, said Barrie.

Additional reporting by Jonathan Landay, Editing by Timothy Heritage